Articles from: Econbrowser.com
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What’s the Plan?
Menzie Chinn, Econbrowser.com
I see currently betting on US troops in Iran by April 30th at 70% (a high of 72% earlier today), with betting on maximum oil price in 2026 of $145/bbl. While the introduction of ground troops, at the levels of the 31st MEU plus 1500 from the 82nd airborne, …
Mar 29, 2026, 8:23 PM
Quantifying Partisanship in Perceptions of Current Economic Conditions
Menzie Chinn, Econbrowser.com
Democrats/Lean Democratic current conditions assessment is relative insensitive to Trump being president, and statistically significantly related to news sentiment. Republican/Lean Republican perception is overwhelmingly associated with whether Trump is presi…
Feb 15, 2026, 9:28 PM
The Recent Evolution of Ground Beef and Ground Coffee Prices and Tariff Rates in the U.S.
Menzie Chinn, Econbrowser.com
From BLS: Figure 1: Price of Ground Beef (red, left scale), of Ground Coffee (brown, right scale), in $/lb., n.s.a. Orange dashed lines at discrete increases in tariff rates, green dashed line at discrete drop in tariff rates. Source: BLS, TPC Tariff Tracker.…
Feb 15, 2026, 5:59 PM
The Year in Review, 2025: I wanted lower prices, and all I got is this lousy hole in the ground
Menzie Chinn, Econbrowser.com
Here are some of the most ridiculous (and tragic) events of 2025, in economic or economic policy terms. January: CEA designate Stephen Miran cobbles together a disjointed attempt at international finance, wherein exorbitant privilege is diminished, but US…
Jan 1, 2026, 2:02 AM
Consumers Vote on Economic Prospects
Menzie Chinn, Econbrowser.com
Durables consumption has experienced extreme volatility over the last 9 months (since the election). However, services and nondurables should follow the permanent income hypothesis — at least halfway (DSGE’s usually incorporate about 50% hand-to-mouth consume…
Aug 3, 2025, 1:27 AM
CEA: “Imported Goods Have Been Getting Cheaper Relative to Domestically Produced Goods”
Menzie Chinn, Econbrowser.com
That’s the title of a report by the Trump administration CEA earlier this month. It’s an interesting question whether this is the relevant question or not. What the CEA analysis does is to use the 2017 Input-Output tables to determine what the final goods pri…
Jul 20, 2025, 2:43 PM